Friday, October 28, 2011

Weekend Preview: Most Exciting Teams

Last season, I created a simple little measure to determine which teams were the most exciting to a neutral. I did so by finding the average number of scoring chances both created and allowed (using shots on goal as a proxy) by each team in a given match. Last year, the three most exciting teams were West Ham, Blackpool, and Chelsea and the three least exciting teams were Stoke, Blackburn, and Manchester City. Obviously, a lot has changed in the excitement table, as West Ham and Blackpool are unfortunately no longer in the league, while Man City have been much more entertaining this season. Here is the table in full, the number is the average number of SOG occurring in each team's games:

Tottenham 12.50
Man United 12.33
Man City 11.89
Bolton 10.89
Wolves 10.56
Arsenal 10.00
Norwich 9.89
Chelsea 9.67
Swansea 9.44
Fulham 9.22
Liverpool 9.22
Blackburn 8.67
Wigan 8.56
West Brom 8.56
Everton 8.50
Sunderland 8.22
Newcastle 8.00
QPR 7.89
Aston Villa 7.56
Stoke 6.78

As you can see, it is quite different. Manchester City have gone from being one of the most boring teams to one of the most exciting almost overnight. Wolves and Man U are also high up there, so it's no surprise that City's last game against both saw 7 goals between the sides. Stoke is still the worst value for your money, though Aston Villa and QPR are right behind. For TV viewers, I would say you should check out City vs. Wolves and Chelsea vs. Arsenal, and steer clear of Stoke vs. Newcastle.
Gambling Picks: Bolton over @Swansea 5/2.  I think Bolton are still underrated. They have played a very tough schedule and deserved to win last time out against Sunderland, but ultimately lost 2-0. I think they'll have a bounce back against a Swansea side that plays very open football which will be to their benefit.

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