Thursday, March 24, 2016

Current Usage Rates and Other Thoughts

I went pretty long in my last post, so this one will be short and sweet. I did want to provide a few final notes that didn't make the earlier piece. First of all, I wanted to provide the usage rates for City players this season, as that was requested by a few commentators. The current season's stats (through 30 games) are below for all players above my arbitrary 750 minute cutoff:

Player Minutes Possessions Used Usage Rate Positive Outcomes Negative Outcomes Ratio
De Bruyne 1555 328 17.56% 100 228 30.49%
Silva 1670 286 14.26% 90 196 31.45%
Kolarov 1799 293 13.55% 68 225 23.21%
Toure 2030 330 13.52% 115 215 34.89%
Bony 1034 150 12.07% 66 84 44.02%
Navas 1646 224 11.33% 67 157 29.91%
Clichy 817 107 10.91% 12 95 11.21%
Sterling 1787 234 10.90% 86 148 36.76%
Sagna 2244 286 10.61% 29 257 10.14%
Aguero 1777 225 10.52% 106 119 47.22%
Fernandinho 2292 251 9.11% 49 202 19.54%
Otamendi 2041 202 8.24% 29 173 14.36%
Kompany 1179 112 7.91% 13 99 11.61%
Demichelis 986 83 7.01% 9 74 10.84%
Fernando 1210 92 6.33% 20 72 21.74%
Mangala 1289 80 5.17% 4 76 5.00%
Hart 2479 122 4.10% 2 120 1.64%

One thing that jumped out to me is how far Aguero's usage rate has fallen from 2013-14. As a commenter mentioned on Twitter, his key passes per 90 minutes have fallen dramatically this season, and that appears to be a big reason for the dropoff. That may be because his strike partner of sorts is Silva, who is definitely a pass-first player. Since this only gives credit for the final ball, it may be that Aguero isn't really less involved in the play, it's just that Silva isn't taking the shots Dzeko or Negredo took. Also for those who think injuries have been the primary factor this season, it's worth pointing out that Aguero has played 200 more minutes this season than he did in the entire 2013-14 campaign.

Going along with the general theme that the offense is less potent this season, it's worth noting that the positive relationship between usage rate and having a higher percentage of positive outcomes (see the "Ratio" column) has decreased. In 2013-14, the r-squared was .78 and it has dropped to .41 this season. That means that we're doing a worse job this year of getting the ball to players who can do the most with it. Aguero and Sterling stand out as two players with low usage rates but very good percentage of positive outcomes on the possessions they use. For Bony defenders (are there any besides me and Mike Goodman?), he has a high ratio of positive outcomes and has been more involved with play than Aguero. However, this (simple) model doesn't distinguish between shots, so the one he almost hit the corner flag counts just as much as his goals. Still, I don't think you can really say he's the problem offensively.

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