City's Signings and Pep's Plans

One of the things I've been hoping to do with my usage rate stat is see how it relates to potential transfer targets. By showing the percentage of possessions used, it gives an idea of how involved a player is in a team's attack. It also correlates very strongly from season to season. I took a look at all players who were in the Premier League in both 14-15 and 15-16 and compared their respective usage rates in each season. The r-squared is .75, suggesting that players generally don't change their style of play. However, that r-squared drops to .59 among the subset of players who changed teams between those seasons. If we know a player has a high usage rate, when he transfers to another team there will need to be an adjustment: either he takes possessions away from players currently on the roster or his own usage rate drops. If the former, the team may suffer if the player is taking away possessions from more skilled players (the mooted Deeney to Leicester deal would have been a good example of this) and if the latter, the player's individual counting and per 90 stats will likely drop since he is using fewer possessions. Knowing this, I wanted to see how City's signings (at least those likely to feature in the first half of this coming PL season) looked, both to see how they would fit into the team and to also potentially glean what Pep is looking for from the players he recruited.

Let's take a look on Gundogan first. Below are his stats last year for Borussia Dortmund:

Player	Successful Passes	Total Passes	Unsuccessful Passes	Key Passes	Assists	Goals	Shots	Take-Ons	Take-On Success %	Unsuccessful Take-Ons	Minutes	Possessions Used	Usage Rate	Positive Outcomes	Negative Outcomes	% Positive
Gundogan	1727	1955	228	23	3	1	50	56	69	25	1990	329	12.57%	76	253	23.09%

Ilkay took on a very large role for a central midfielder in their offense. His usage rate was second on the team to Mkhitaryan, though at 12.6% it would just be 6th at City. His stats are probably most similar to Toure's, who posted a 13.5% usage rate, with fewer shots per 90 (to be expected given Toure's more prominent role in free-kicks) and more take-ons. I think he can slot in a similar role, and he appears to have a defensive quickness that Toure doesn't at this point in his career which could allow the pair to play together. Of course the question mark over Gundogan is his injured knee, which is what allowed City to pick him up for such a reasonable price. I am hopeful that he makes a full recovery, but that is by no means certain and City's medical department has a less than stellar track record.

Next up is Nolito. His stats for Celta Vigo are below:

Player	Successful Passes	Total Passes	Unsuccessful Passes	Key Passes	Assists	Goals	Shots	Take-Ons	Take-On Success %	Unsuccessful Take-Ons	Minutes	Possessions Used	Usage Rate	Positive Outcomes	Negative Outcomes	% Positive
Nolito	736	1091	355	53	7	12	81	58	41	83	2471	579	18.38%	141	438	24.33%

You'll note the usage rate is high. Very high. So high in fact that not only would it have been the highest on City last season, it would have been second-highest in the Premier League last season behind only Alexis Sanchez. That is simply not going to continue on a team with Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva, and Yaya Toure. He was the focus of Celta Vigo's attack in a way he just won't be with City. The problem is his counting stats (i.e. goals and assists) are artificially inflated by the amount of possessions he used. He scored 12 goals and had 7 assists, very respectable season totals for someone playing primarily on the wing. However, those totals came from him using a whopping 579 possessions. De Bruyne, probably the most similar player currently on the City roster, used just 400 possessions to obtain 7 goals and 9 assists (and 20 more key passes than Nolito). As a result, the percentage of possessions Nolito used with a positive outcome (i.e. a shot, key pass, or assist) is just 24% (KDB's is at 32%). Even though it's certainly possible efficiency can be improved when you are not the primary focus of a defense the way Nolito was at Celta (though I haven't seen much evidence of this in the data), I just don't see how his goal and assist totals are repeatable. He's also 30, so he's probably in the down slope of his career at this point.

Finally, the signing I'm most excited about: Leroy Sane.

Player	Successful Passes	Total Passes	Unsuccessful Passes	Key Passes	Assists	Goals	Shots	Take-Ons	Take-On Success %	Unsuccessful Take-Ons	Minutes	Possessions Used	Usage Rate	Positive Outcomes	Negative Outcomes	% Positive
Sane	479	615	136	22	6	8	68	92	46	108	2318	340	11.76%	96	244	28.24%

As you can see, a much lower usage rate here. In this regard, he's most similar to the speedy wingers already on the City roster in Sterling and Navas. While he doesn't rate particularly high in the total numbers of key passes and shots, the locations he takes shots from and makes passes to are excellent, which is reflected in his excellent xG/xA numbers. The lower usage rate means he'll also be easier to integrate into the side since he can achieve production without needing the play to run through him all the time. He's also much younger than the previous two signings, so he has significant potential to improve.

Do the players Pep recruited tell us much about his plans for the squad next season? He certainly seems to be targeting players with a high usage rate for their position, and (relatedly) players with a large number of take-ons. That would indicate he wants players who are comfortable and dynamic on the ball, but I haven't seen a focus on retention of possession (Sane's passing percentage is 78%, Nolito's just 67%). This might also explain why Nasri and Fernando, two players with a low number of take-ons per 90 but strong passing percentages, might be less utilized by Pep than Pellegrini. To me, this suggests Pep is looking to build an offense that is capable of attacking from anywhere, rather than be reliant on a single talent the way City were last year on KDB. However, given Nolito's indifferent stats, Gundogan's injury, and Gabriel Jesus' late arrival, he'll largely need to do it with the players already here. I think this might mean a bigger role for Delph and Sterling, both of whom had a higher usage rates on their previous teams and were under-utilized by Pellegrini. No matter how it unfolds, it will be fascinating to see how he pulls it all together.